Preamble
3 min read • blue shift report

Preamble

We're doomed, now what?

I am in the process of reaching the 2,507-meter apex of Pic d’Anie, a summit of the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Randonnée skis equipped with seal skins on my feet, ice axe in hand. Sweat is dripping from my forehead, stinging my eyes. Yet I am only wearing shorts and a tank top. I think to myself, “This would be a great illustration for our Report on adaptation to climate change.” I also recall what the president of a large sports equipment company confided in me a few weeks ago: “We are going to leave the ski industry....”

Why leave the ski industry when the market is continuing to grow? On the one hand, because climate change has already severely impacted the operational costs of ski resorts and their opening periods (as an example, about 87% of American ski resorts are dependent on artificial snow production).[1] This market is therefore not sustainable in the long term. On the other hand, it’s a matter of image: the company’s brand cannot continue to be associated with what is becoming an unnatural exploitation of the mountains.

As I cautiously embark on the descent, these thoughts lead me to maladaptation, referring to adaptation initiatives that increase climate change risk and vulnerability, like turning up the air-conditioning in a heat wave. A lazy and cynical approach to adaptation. An adaptation about resignation.

We wrote this Report for those businesses that don’t plan on resigning from the fight against climate change. In it, we summarize the study we conducted that involved about 40 international experts. This journey has allowed us to forge certain convictions, some of which are very alarming.

As an example, regardless of our decisions and actions today, the world is likely to be heading toward a warming of +3°C by 2100. And this reality comes with cascading consequences: from rising sea levels to increasingly extreme weather events to massive migratory flows.

For businesses, this raises four major challenges: sourcing critical materials, maintaining manufacturing productivity (making), protecting assets, and selling new products and services for the new normal. The unavoidable conclusion? While continuing our efforts to mitigate our impact on global warming, companies must begin to adapt today. Climate change adaptation is an existential question.

I wish I could say that I am an expert on climate change. I am not. However, during this study, my team and I interacted with more than 40 leading experts across the globe. I would like to share three key insights with you that I found surprising, alarming, and yet still hopeful:

  1. Just a small average global temperature increase — such as +3˚C by 2100 versus the preindustrial era — has an enormous impact of which most of us are unaware.
  2. The most complicated problems (understanding what is going on and proposing solutions) turned out to be relatively simple, while the simple problems (deciding and acting) turned out to be the most complicated.
  3. The climate change trajectory we are most likely already on will make it very tough for all of us; however, we can adapt. We will adapt. Technology is part of the solution, but only one part.

These three insights are detailed in Chapters 2-4 of this Report.

As an appetizer, I share two intriguing anagrams:

“climate change”

is the anagram of

“technical game”

Illustrating the fact that technology, indeed, is part of the solution to this major challenge that we are collectively facing.

Maybe more obscurely,

“climate change”

also transforms into

“teaching camel”

Which reminds us that besides technologies, nature can teach us effective solutions — like the camel, perfectly adapted to its warm environment. This reminds us also that we should not fall completely into techno-solutionism.

— Albert Meige, PhD