Rodolfo Guzman
Managing Partner
Head of Arthur D. Little Latin America
Rodolfo advises energy players on growth strategies, organizational transformation, performance improvement and technology management.
Education
The Wharton School. University of Pennsylvania
Master in Business Administration
Universidad Simón Bolívar (Caracas, Venezuela)
Mechanical Engineering "Summa Cum Laude"
Past Experience
Petroquímica de Venezuela S.A.
Financial Analyst
Rodolfo is the Managing Partner of Arthur D. Little’s Latin American operation and head of the Houston office. With over twenty-five years of management consulting experience, he has developed extensive knowledge of the global energy industry, specially the oil and gas business.
His functional interests are focused on the areas of strategy development and organizational transformation. Rodolfo has advised private and state-owned oil and gas companies, as well as governments in many countries with challenges related to transformation and value creation opportunities in the energy sector.
Examples of his consulting work include projects related to design of energy policies, exploration strategies for unconventional hydrocarbons, visualization of deep-water developments, promotion of E&P investment, refinery feasibility studies, international trading, retail-network strategies, performance management, contract administration and restructuring of oil and gas companies.
Rodolfo has a passion for making impactful changes, and he has played an important role in the transformation of the energy sectors of several Latin American countries.
The energy transition dilemma for national oil companies
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent crisis in the oil and gas (O&G) industry have presented national oil companies (NOCs) and their governments with an apparent dilemma: (1) become early adopters of decarbonization initiatives, or (2) take a slower, “wait and see” approach until outside pressure forces them to commit to a decarbonization path. In fact, the solution can instead be a strategy that embraces sustainability as an element of the NOC’s core business, creating value for stakeholders.
Electric buses
Electric buses are expected to be more efficient and greener than diesel buses, and key to making cities more environmentally friendly. Every city must carefully choose its individual solution for its bus fleet, and OEMs have to be ready to mirror the local requirements by understanding the needs of both PTOs and PTAs.
Petroleum: Surviving in the post-COVID-19 era
The pandemic has created a perfect storm for the global petroleum industry, combining oversupply with a dramatic fall in demand – all at a time when ongoing requirements to decarbonize economies are gathering pace. We look at potential scenarios for the future, analyzing the impact on different market players over both the short and long term.
Internationalization of National Oil Companies
The energy transition is bringing new challenges to National Oil Companies (NOCs). The demands of the industry transformations in their own countries are encouraging many NOCs to pursue international ventures. As is the need to innovate, to continuously increase value creation for citizens while modernizing their operations. However, to increase their chances of success in a highly competitive global industry, NOCs will need to clearly define their internationalization strategies and prepare their organizations for these new growth pathways.
Shaping the oil company of the future
After over a century of growth, demand for oil is likely to peak and begin to decline by around 2035. This will lead to radical transformation of the industry, convergence, new entrants and new business strategies. What will this future ecosystem will look like? Will existing players be able to survive and even benefit from these new challenges? We explore what the successful oil company of the future will look like.
Introduction
Energy Journal – Utilities
The global electricity industry is wrestling with its legacy as it undergoes the most significant structural changes since Thomas Edison invented the light bulb in 1879. The forces of innovation and disruption led by technological advances and economic viability of several trends such as decentralized renewable energy, energy storage, digitalization/smartization of networks, electric vehicles, active policy making and regulation, and the influx of new market entrants in the power sector are the main drivers of the current transformation.
The oil company of the future
What are oil companies going to look like in the future?
The oil industry is shifting towards NOC hegemony, peak oil is arriving from the demand side, and the energy mix is changing. Oil companies’ profiles are in constant evolution, and they are already adapting their business strategies to the forthcoming era. However, will they know how to leverage their core competences to survive and even benefit from such new challenges?
Building momentum – oil and gas in Latin America
Unconventional oil production has grown these past few years despite low oil prices since 2014. Although production in the US decreased in 2015, stabilization of prices and improvements in several operational areas allowed unconventionals to maintain a relevant role in the global supply. Last year, Arthur D. Little published a viewpoint analyzing the perspectives for unconventional resources in selected Latin American countries. While our outlook for Latin American opportunities remains positive, there are new factors to consider.
Dead end approaches for high- sulfur fuels
Demand switch to low-sulfur fuels has been uneven across the globe, but environmental and engine regulations are pressing sulfur specs to extremely low limits. Refiners need to act accordingly since there will not be place to sink high-sulfur fuels anymore.
Petroleum refiners and shippers struggle over marine fuel
The marine-fuel sector is facing lower-sulfur-content specifications, with the major change taking place in January 2020. Both petroleum refiners and ship owners could contribute to close the supply-demand gap, but all players’ contributions will depend on each other’s, in both impact and timing.
Unconventional hydrocarbons in Latin America
Production of unconventional hydrocarbons became globally prominent in 2010, when the US, for the first time, reached a daily output of 1 million barrels of tight oil. In Latin America, where high unconventional hydrocarbon potential has been widely recognized, Governments noticed the need to attract experienced international operators, qualified suppliers and risk-prone investors to develop such resources. The current global low-prices and increasing social and environmental pressures raise questions about the timing of Latin America’s unconventional take-off.
What is next for petroleum downstream?
Petroleum downstream has been adapting to increasing competition and challenging regulations, and is suffering from lower returns than the upstream segment. Industry challenges will intensify, and new energy sources for mobility will impact the entire fuel value chain. Downstream players need to rethink their business models and innovate to protect their share of the mobility market.
Where now for oil?
The recent precipitous fall in oil was predicted by almost no-one. In this viewpoint we attempt to explain the economics of the change and highlight an emerging “new normal” for oil prices in which a medium term recovery occurs, but prices stay below US$80 per barrel. We also highlight the implications of this new normal.
The birth of Neo-Petronationalism: a new emerging model
In 2013 Mexico approved an ambitious energy reform that ended 70 years of Petronationalism. The country opened its market and now allows private and international investors to participate through a range of contracting models. The authors believe that a successful implementation of the Mexican energy reform will position Neo-Petronationalism as a new paradigm for certain countries that share similar conditions. What are the business opportunities, and who will be in the next wave?
Opportunities and challenges for Global Deepwater Players
The pace of deepwater drilling has increased by 40 % over the last three years. While technology is a key enabler for deepwater development, players still face many critical challenges and decisions which require close attention if projects are to be delivered successfully. In this article the authors take a closer look at the global rise in deepwater activities and discuss how to address the challenges this brings.
Rodolfo is the Managing Partner of Arthur D. Little’s Latin American operation and head of the Houston office. With over twenty-five years of management consulting experience, he has developed extensive knowledge of the global energy industry, specially the oil and gas business.
His functional interests are focused on the areas of strategy development and organizational transformation. Rodolfo has advised private and state-owned oil and gas companies, as well as governments in many countries with challenges related to transformation and value creation opportunities in the energy sector.
Examples of his consulting work include projects related to design of energy policies, exploration strategies for unconventional hydrocarbons, visualization of deep-water developments, promotion of E&P investment, refinery feasibility studies, international trading, retail-network strategies, performance management, contract administration and restructuring of oil and gas companies.
Rodolfo has a passion for making impactful changes, and he has played an important role in the transformation of the energy sectors of several Latin American countries.
The energy transition dilemma for national oil companies
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent crisis in the oil and gas (O&G) industry have presented national oil companies (NOCs) and their governments with an apparent dilemma: (1) become early adopters of decarbonization initiatives, or (2) take a slower, “wait and see” approach until outside pressure forces them to commit to a decarbonization path. In fact, the solution can instead be a strategy that embraces sustainability as an element of the NOC’s core business, creating value for stakeholders.
Electric buses
Electric buses are expected to be more efficient and greener than diesel buses, and key to making cities more environmentally friendly. Every city must carefully choose its individual solution for its bus fleet, and OEMs have to be ready to mirror the local requirements by understanding the needs of both PTOs and PTAs.
Petroleum: Surviving in the post-COVID-19 era
The pandemic has created a perfect storm for the global petroleum industry, combining oversupply with a dramatic fall in demand – all at a time when ongoing requirements to decarbonize economies are gathering pace. We look at potential scenarios for the future, analyzing the impact on different market players over both the short and long term.
Internationalization of National Oil Companies
The energy transition is bringing new challenges to National Oil Companies (NOCs). The demands of the industry transformations in their own countries are encouraging many NOCs to pursue international ventures. As is the need to innovate, to continuously increase value creation for citizens while modernizing their operations. However, to increase their chances of success in a highly competitive global industry, NOCs will need to clearly define their internationalization strategies and prepare their organizations for these new growth pathways.
Shaping the oil company of the future
After over a century of growth, demand for oil is likely to peak and begin to decline by around 2035. This will lead to radical transformation of the industry, convergence, new entrants and new business strategies. What will this future ecosystem will look like? Will existing players be able to survive and even benefit from these new challenges? We explore what the successful oil company of the future will look like.
Introduction
Energy Journal – Utilities
The global electricity industry is wrestling with its legacy as it undergoes the most significant structural changes since Thomas Edison invented the light bulb in 1879. The forces of innovation and disruption led by technological advances and economic viability of several trends such as decentralized renewable energy, energy storage, digitalization/smartization of networks, electric vehicles, active policy making and regulation, and the influx of new market entrants in the power sector are the main drivers of the current transformation.
The oil company of the future
What are oil companies going to look like in the future?
The oil industry is shifting towards NOC hegemony, peak oil is arriving from the demand side, and the energy mix is changing. Oil companies’ profiles are in constant evolution, and they are already adapting their business strategies to the forthcoming era. However, will they know how to leverage their core competences to survive and even benefit from such new challenges?
Building momentum – oil and gas in Latin America
Unconventional oil production has grown these past few years despite low oil prices since 2014. Although production in the US decreased in 2015, stabilization of prices and improvements in several operational areas allowed unconventionals to maintain a relevant role in the global supply. Last year, Arthur D. Little published a viewpoint analyzing the perspectives for unconventional resources in selected Latin American countries. While our outlook for Latin American opportunities remains positive, there are new factors to consider.
Dead end approaches for high- sulfur fuels
Demand switch to low-sulfur fuels has been uneven across the globe, but environmental and engine regulations are pressing sulfur specs to extremely low limits. Refiners need to act accordingly since there will not be place to sink high-sulfur fuels anymore.
Petroleum refiners and shippers struggle over marine fuel
The marine-fuel sector is facing lower-sulfur-content specifications, with the major change taking place in January 2020. Both petroleum refiners and ship owners could contribute to close the supply-demand gap, but all players’ contributions will depend on each other’s, in both impact and timing.
Unconventional hydrocarbons in Latin America
Production of unconventional hydrocarbons became globally prominent in 2010, when the US, for the first time, reached a daily output of 1 million barrels of tight oil. In Latin America, where high unconventional hydrocarbon potential has been widely recognized, Governments noticed the need to attract experienced international operators, qualified suppliers and risk-prone investors to develop such resources. The current global low-prices and increasing social and environmental pressures raise questions about the timing of Latin America’s unconventional take-off.
What is next for petroleum downstream?
Petroleum downstream has been adapting to increasing competition and challenging regulations, and is suffering from lower returns than the upstream segment. Industry challenges will intensify, and new energy sources for mobility will impact the entire fuel value chain. Downstream players need to rethink their business models and innovate to protect their share of the mobility market.
Where now for oil?
The recent precipitous fall in oil was predicted by almost no-one. In this viewpoint we attempt to explain the economics of the change and highlight an emerging “new normal” for oil prices in which a medium term recovery occurs, but prices stay below US$80 per barrel. We also highlight the implications of this new normal.
The birth of Neo-Petronationalism: a new emerging model
In 2013 Mexico approved an ambitious energy reform that ended 70 years of Petronationalism. The country opened its market and now allows private and international investors to participate through a range of contracting models. The authors believe that a successful implementation of the Mexican energy reform will position Neo-Petronationalism as a new paradigm for certain countries that share similar conditions. What are the business opportunities, and who will be in the next wave?
Opportunities and challenges for Global Deepwater Players
The pace of deepwater drilling has increased by 40 % over the last three years. While technology is a key enabler for deepwater development, players still face many critical challenges and decisions which require close attention if projects are to be delivered successfully. In this article the authors take a closer look at the global rise in deepwater activities and discuss how to address the challenges this brings.
More About Rodolfo
- The Wharton School. University of PennsylvaniaMaster in Business Administration
- Universidad Simón Bolívar (Caracas, Venezuela)Mechanical Engineering "Summa Cum Laude"
- Petroquímica de Venezuela S.A.Financial Analyst