INTERLUDE - We need you to take charge

Some problems seem simple and turn out to be complicated; others seem complicated and turn out to be simple. As scientists, we live with that uncertainty. For example, a research project that I believed could be solved in a few weeks (as a warmup for further work) turned out to be a deep monster. My main collaborator and I finally solved the problem after more than two years of work, hundreds of mistakes and wanderings, and a 200-page proof, eventually earning me the Fields Medal (an award granted for outstanding contributions in mathematics by young scientists).

As for the climate change issue, the monster problem for the international scientific community 30 years ago was the technical analysis of natural phenomena at work. What an outstanding challenge to analyze the trends of temperatures, humidity, winds, and so on, behind the complexity, variability, and multifactoriality of weather! What seemed much simpler and understandable was the actions humans would need to take when the technical analysis was over.

It turned out to be precisely the contrary.

A fantastic international coalition of thousands of scientists harnessed an amazing amount of facts, measurements, and papers to establish conclusions that can all be summarized in a few sentences that even a child can understand: Climate is warming up, and weather is becoming more unstable; this is certain. It can be measured, and it is happening fast. It (almost) all depends on carbon dioxide and methane. And it’s totally — not partially — due to our human activities.

This is a truly remarkable achievement in its simplicity, despite the amazing technical difficulties. All resources of natural science have been summoned. Data collection, climate sciences, physics, chemistry, biology, geology, statistics, computer science, numerical simulations … I have witnessed many participants in this outstanding collective project, one of the scientific adventures of our time.

This coalition has also recommended some remedies, at least to mitigate climate warming. And it has provided some tools and directions to address the more complex issue of human adaptation. Dozens of plans have been put forth, with many ingredients, quantitative recipes, and so forth, using current tools and ideas. There’s no need to wait for hypothetical recipes, and certainly no time.

So we have the diagnosis, and we have part of the cure. The math is clear. Change is occurring very fast and can be conjured. It’s up to all of us to change the behavior of society. It’s for citizens and governments and infrastructures and companies and banks, private and public sectors alike. Not in 10 years but now. The message seems clear. Scientists have provided a whole bunch of figures and predictions about potential catastrophes and the need for fast decisions and actions to mitigate and adapt.

But then, the real difficulties started, to a level that hardly anyone expected. And it was for the part that seemed simple: convince the whole world to act in the face of such a dire situation. Next came an array of political games, lobbying campaigns, smoke curtains, disinformation, billions of dollars to prevent action, and cognitive mechanisms for society to not act. The social sciences, including Naomi Oreskes and her collaborators, have made tremendous progress in analyzing these obstacles, but action has hardly started.

Taking part in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was an amazing experience. When the session was organized by scientists, it was marked with energy and determination to act as fast and efficiently as possible. In contrast, roundtables organized by politicians seem to act as slowly and inefficiently as possible. Science always gets things done; political actions can be stuck forever until the most important force comes into play: the will.

When I lecture about society transition, I like to enumerate seven key ingredients: diagnostic, plans, motivation, investment, governance, workforce, and control. The first two are what scientists can do. The rest are for society as a whole, particularly politicians, financiers, professional organizations, and unions, to work out.

Companies have a key role to play in this transition. First, because there is just not enough public money, investment, and workforce, by a long shot, to handle all the changes. Second, because change is easier to implement at the company level than at the government level, which is always subject to more pressure and tension.

So your company is also in charge. The good news is that there are plenty of diagnostic tools, examples, and recipes that your company can use to adapt. In the worst case, if your business model depends on the amount of greenhouse gas that you produce, then it’s time to change your business. But in most cases, it will be about changing habits, replacing products, and finding new ways to continue the actions of your company.

Science has done its job; it’s the part that you could never have done. Now it’s your time to be in charge.

— Cédric Villani, President of the Fondation de l’Écologie Politique